Electricity Market Redesign for a Zero-Marginal-Cost System
Europe is building a power system dominated by zero marginal cost generation and storage, but revenues remain largely determined by wholesale markets designed to price incremental megawatt hours, not capacity, flexibility, or resilience. The result is a structural mismatch between how assets create value and how they are paid, weakening investment signals and revenue visibility. This panel examines what a bankable zero marginal cost market architecture could look like, and what it means for how renewable, storage, and flexibility assets will earn revenue and attract investment.
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Structural Oversupply: If capture price compression and negative pricing are structural, can merchant renewable and storage assets still generate predictable, bankable returns under the current market design? Are subsidies, CfDs, and contract overlays supporting the transition to a functioning market, or masking a deeper architectural problem in how value is priced and remunerated?
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Energy vs Availability: If zero marginal cost generation dominates supply, does marginal pricing still provide investable signals for renewable and storage assets? As markets evolve to reward capacity, firmness, and flexibility over volume, what revenue model will underpin renewable and storage investment in a zero marginal cost market, and who will capture the value created?
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Reliability, Gas, and Storage: What role will storage, demand response, and firm capacity play in maintaining reliability, and how will these assets be remunerated in a bankable zero marginal cost market? Can storage and flexibility markets alone provide system reliability at high renewable penetration, or will gas capacity remain necessary, and how should it be remunerated in a bankable market framework?
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Portfolio Construction and System Risk: As marginal generation becomes less valuable and revenue shifts toward flexibility and optimisation, how must investors change portfolio design and routes to market to maintain bankable returns? Will standalone generation remain investable, or will hybridisation, storage integration, and optimisation become necessary to sustain predictable revenue?